"The Future Through Yesterday: Long-Term Forecasting in the Novels of H.G. Wells and Jules Verne" The Centennial Review 38, 1994
Introductory Paragraph:
Suppose you were living in 1896, the date Arrhenius published his amazing paper on the Greenhouse Effect, and that your profession or intellectual passion was to predict the distant future....
"Economic Modeling and the False Tradeoff Between Environmental Protection and Economic Growth" Contemporary Economic Policy 15, 1997
Abstract
One important element of the current policy debate on what measures should be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is the controversy over the costs of reducing those emissions. “Top-down ” macroeconomic and general equilibrium models give much higher estimates of the costs than “bottom-up” models based on microeconomic and...
"The Efficiency Paradox: Bureaucratic and Organizational Barriers to Profitable Energy-Saving Investments" Energy Policy 26, 1998
Abstract
The paradox of why profitable energy-saving investments are not undertaken continues to provoke debate. The underlying phenomenon might be called the 'efficiency paradox,' because it represents a case in which business firms, which are often presumed (or taken axiomatically) to be economically efficient, make decisions that do not maximize profits. New data...