“Modeling Technological Change in Energy Demand Forecasting: A Generalized Approach” (with John A. “Skip” Laitner) Technological Forecasting and Social Change 55, 1997

Abstract

Conventional economic modeling of energy demand has characterized technological choice as an investment decision driven primarily by the relationship between capital costs and operating costs. Yet the implementation of this approach has tended to yield unrealistically high estimates of the implicit discount rate governing investment decisions, particularly those involving energy efficient technologies. This result arises from incomplete specification of the process of technological choice and the diffusion of innovations. General models of diffusion include conventional costs as one set of factors among many others that influence the spread of new technologies, These more general models have been widely applied to the adoption of other new or improved products, and their use in energy demand forecasting would lead to more accurate and reliable projections. Modification of the forecasts would have policy implications. In particular, the cost of a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by encouraging more rapid diffusion of energy efficient technologies is likely to be considerably smaller than would be suggested by the conventional economic models.

“Doing Well by Doing Good: Technology Transfer to Protect the Ozone” (with Kai N. Lee) Policy Studies Journal 19, 1991

“Accumulation and Discrimination in the Postbellum South” Explorations in Economic History 16, 1979

Abstract

Economic inequality between blacks and whites in the postbellum South can be attributed to two factors: racial discrimination and the absence of any redistribution of tangible wealth to accompany emancipation. This paper shows that the freedmen’s initial lack of property was the most important cause of race-related income differences. The initial wealth gap between the freedmen and the whites was large enough to guarantee that a great deal of income inequality would have persisted long after emancipation, even if all markets had functioned perfectly. In addition, the actual rate at which the economic distance between blacks and whites was being reduced suggests the existence of forces which lengthened the time required to eradicate the effects of the initial wealth inequality.

Monograph published by Redefining Progress in October 1997.

Link to the Monograph

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