27 Oct Populism and Its Discontents, 1882-1906
Abstract. The economic causes of nineteenth-century agrarian unrest in the United States continue to be debated. This paper examines how Populism was influenced by errors in farmers’ forecasting of crop prices. These losses are quantified by applying a model that makes minimal assumptions about how farmers formed price expectations. Both wheat and cotton producing states exhibit a pattern of forecasting errors peaking during the height of the Populist movement in the 1890s. The losses from forecasting error were substantial relative to losses from exogenous factors such as weather and pests. The model is not intended to be a predictor of Populist voting, but rather to highlight an important factor contributing to the farmers’ distress.
Forthcoming in Revista di Storia Economica – Italian Review of Economic History
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