Books and Papers

(with Charles F. Manski and Alan H. Sanstad)

NBER Working Paper #29716 (February 2022)

https://www.nber.org/papers/w29716

Integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for comparing climate policies that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Policy comparisons have often been performed by considering a planner who seeks to make optimal trade-offs between the costs of carbon abatement and the economic damages from climate change. The planning problem...

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 118, No. 15 (2021).  https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2022886118.

Co-authors:  Charles F. Manski, Alan H. Sanstad, and Stephen J. DeCanio

Abstract

Numerical simulations of the global climate system provide inputs to integrated assessment modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to address global climate change. While essential tools for this purpose, computational climate models are subject to...

Abstract
Alan Turing’s 1950 paper, “Computing Machinery and Intelligence,” contains much more than its proposal of the “Turing Test.” Turing imagined the development of what we today call AI by a process akin to the education of a child. Thus, while Turing anticipated “machine learning,” his prescience brings to the foreground the yet unsolved problem of how humans might teach or shape AIs to behave in ways that align...

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-018-0851-7

Abstract

Can an Artificial Intelligence make distinctions among major works of politics, philosophy, and fiction without human assistance?  In this paper, Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) is used to find patterns in a relatively small sample of notable works archived by Project Gutenberg.  It is shown that an LSA-equipped AI can distinguish quite sharply between fiction and non-fiction works, and can detect some differences between political philosophy...

Abstract
The effect of the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on wages depends on both the form of aggregate production relationships and the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor. With a conventional production function involving labor, robots, and ordinary capital, an increase in robotic labor can have either a positive or a negative effect on wages. Alternatively, it is possible to estimate the aggregate production relationship without measuring...

Abstract

Alexander Wendt’s Quantum Mind and Social Science is an effort to establish foundations of social science based on the ontology of modern physics. The quantum revolution has deservedly had repercussions in many sciences, but it is unwise to ground social science on physical theories, which are subject to constant revision. Additionally, despite its empirical success, there is no agreed-upon interpretation of quantum theory. Finally, even if there were,...

Abstract
 
Various potential strategic interactions between a “strong” Artificial intelligence (AI) and humans are analyzed using simple 2 × 2 order games, drawing on the New Periodic Table of those games developed by Robinson and Goforth (The topology of the 2 × 2 games: a new periodic table. Routledge, London, 2005). Strong risk aversion on the part of the human player(s) leads to shutting down the...

"Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 93, 1979

 

Introduction

The burgeoning literature employing or alluding to the concept of rational expectations in time-dependent economic processes is strangely vague regarding possible mechanisms by which the economic agents could actually achieve the hypothesized "rationality." Muth (1961) assumed that the formation of expectations according to his optimality criterion would have survival value in a...