Author: Stephen DeCanio

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27 Oct

Posted at 18:56h in Selected Articles, Uncategorized by

Abstract.  The economic causes of nineteenth-century agrarian unrest in the United States continue to be debated.  This paper examines how Populism was influenced by errors in farmers’ forecasting of crop prices.  These losses are quantified by applying a model that makes minimal assumptions about how farmers formed price expectations.  Both wheat and cotton producing states exhibit a pattern of forecasting errors peaking during the height of the Populist movement in...

06 Jun

Posted at 20:47h in Selected Articles by

In Qeios, online open access journal with signed reviews, 10/25/2025.

https://www.qeios.com/read/MW5WXQ.2

With William E. Watkins

Economists conventionally attribute inequality in employee compensation to differences in the marginal productivities of workers. However, it is possible that inequality arises from an entirely different source – the network structure of the organizations to which the employees belong....

10 Aug

Posted at 10:30h in Selected Articles by




Ecological Economics 201 (November 2022)

(with Charles F. Manski and Alan H. Sanstad)

https://authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S0921-8009(22)00214-2
Abstract

Integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for comparing climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Such policies have often been identified by considering a planner who seeks to make optimal trade-offs between the...

13 Jul

Posted at 19:57h in Selected Articles by

SN Business and Economics (2022) 2:92

https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-022-00260-z

Abstract
The “efficiency-distribution” model introduced by Houthakker in 1955 offers a flexible approach to production theory that does not require the measurement of capital and other fixed assets. Thus it avoids the theoretical problems associated with the Cambridge controversies and with Franklin Fisher’s critiques of aggregation. The efficiency distribution model can be empirically implemented using only observed productivity distributions and...

19 Mar

Posted at 19:45h in Selected Articles by

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 118, No. 15 (2021).  https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2022886118.

Co-authors:  Charles F. Manski, Alan H. Sanstad, and Stephen J. DeCanio

Abstract

Numerical simulations of the global climate system provide inputs to integrated assessment modeling for estimating the impacts of greenhouse gas mitigation and other policies to address global climate change. While essential tools for this purpose, computational climate models are subject to...

25 Jun

Posted at 15:04h in Selected Articles, Uncategorized by

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-018-0851-7

Abstract

Can an Artificial Intelligence make distinctions among major works of politics, philosophy, and fiction without human assistance?  In this paper, Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) is used to find patterns in a relatively small sample of notable works archived by Project Gutenberg.  It is shown that an LSA-equipped AI can distinguish quite sharply between fiction and non-fiction works, and can detect some differences between political philosophy...

14 Aug

Posted at 21:44h in Selected Articles by

Abstract
The effect of the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on wages depends on both the form of aggregate production relationships and the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor. With a conventional production function involving labor, robots, and ordinary capital, an increase in robotic labor can have either a positive or a negative effect on wages. Alternatively, it is possible to estimate the aggregate production relationship without measuring...

14 Aug

Posted at 21:29h in Selected Articles by

Abstract

Alexander Wendt’s Quantum Mind and Social Science is an effort to establish foundations of social science based on the ontology of modern physics. The quantum revolution has deservedly had repercussions in many sciences, but it is unwise to ground social science on physical theories, which are subject to constant revision. Additionally, despite its empirical success, there is no agreed-upon interpretation of quantum theory. Finally, even if there were,...