03 Jul Economic Losses from Forecasting Error in Agriculture
"Economic Losses from Forecasting Error in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 88(2) (April 1980): 234-58.
Abstract
This paper develops a new method for estimating economic losses from forecasting error. The method is an alternative to the traditional distributed lag approach to estimating expectations. An application to Kansas agriculture over the period 1874-1933 reveals significant variation in farmers' price forecasting performance across counties and over time. These differences...