Abstract
Various potential strategic interactions between a “strong” Artificial intelligence (AI) and humans are analyzed using simple 2 × 2 order games, drawing on the New Periodic Table of those games developed by Robinson and Goforth (The topology of the 2 × 2 games: a new periodic table. Routledge, London, 2005). Strong risk aversion on the part of the human player(s) leads to shutting down the...
"Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 93, 1979
Introduction
The burgeoning literature employing or alluding to the concept of rational expectations in time-dependent economic processes is strangely vague regarding possible mechanisms by which the economic agents could actually achieve the hypothesized "rationality." Muth (1961) assumed that the formation of expectations according to his optimality criterion would have survival value in a...
"Economic Losses from Forecasting Error in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy Vol. 88(2) (April 1980): 234-58.
Abstract
This paper develops a new method for estimating economic losses from forecasting error. The method is an alternative to the traditional distributed lag approach to estimating expectations. An application to Kansas agriculture over the period 1874-1933 reveals significant variation in farmers' price forecasting performance across counties and over time. These differences...
"Game Theory and Climate Diplomacy" (with Anders Fremstad), Ecological Economics 85 (2013): 177-187
Abstract
Starting with the “New Periodic Table” (NPT) of 2×2 order games introduced by Robinson and Goforth (2005), we provide an exhaustive treatment of the possible game-theoretic characterizations of climate negotiations between two players (e.g., Great Powers or coalitions of states). Of the 144 distinct 2×2 games in which the players have strict ordinally ranked...
"Investment in Energy Efficiency: Do the Characteristics of Firms Matter?" (with William E. Watkins) Review of Economics and Statistics 80, 1998
Abstract
The literature on energy efficiency provides numerous examples of apparently profitable technologies that are not universally adopted. Yet according to the standard neoclassical theory of investment, profit-maximizing firms should undertake all investments with a positive net present value....
"The Importance of Organizational Structure for the Adoption of Innovations" (with Catherine Dibble and Keyvan Amir-Atefi) Management Science 46, 2000
Abstract
Organizational structure affects both the overall behavior of firms and the situations of individuals and subunits within firms. The effect of exogenous changes in the environment (market prices, costs, or regulations) on organizations can be partitioned into the immediate direct effect of the change and the...
"Information Processing and Organizational Structure" (with William E. Watkins), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 36 (1998)
Abstract
Standard economic theories of the firm (and other organizations) stress profit maximization as the foundation for derivation of predictable behavior. Yet statistical and case-study evidence continues to accumulate that real firms do not act as required by the neoclassical framework. Instead of being represented by ever more elaborate maximization models,...
"Delivered Pricing and Multiple Basing Point Equilibria: A Re-evaluation" Quarterly Journal of Economics 99, 1984
Abstract
This paper examines delivered pricing with systematic freight absorption in the light of the modern theory of spatial competition. Delivered pricing, multiple basing point equilibria are compared with f.o.b. mill pricing equilibria under a variety of assumptions about market structure and firms' conjectural variations. It is shown that there is no clear...
"Uncle Tom's Cabin: A Reappraisal" The Centennial Review 34, 1990.
Reprinted in part in Nineteenth-Century Literature Criticism, Vol. 50: Criticism of the Works of Novelists, Poets, Playwrights, Short Story Writers, Philosophers, and Other Creative Writers Who Died between 1800 and 1899, from the First Published Critical Appraisals to Current Evaluations. James E. Person, Jr., Ed., Catherine C....
"International Cooperation to Avert Global Warming: Economic Growth, Carbon Pricing, and Energy Efficiency" Journal of Environment and Development 1, 1992
Abstract
This paper develops a global simulation model linking economic growth, population growth, and fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions. The equations of the model are estimated from historical data on a sample covering most of the countries of the world. The estimated relationships show that while increased economic...